Shia-Sunni dynamic, special status: Key factors at poll play in Kashmir

In a major poll rejig, the Abdullahs will not contest the Lok Sabha (LS) elections from Srinagar this time. Instead, the National Conference (NC) has fielded former Cabinet minister and prominent Shia cleric Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi against Waheed Parra of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

“Aside from their political backgrounds, both candidates have a similar appeal in terms of their views post-2019,” says Hakim Sameer Hamdani, author of the book Shi’ism in Kashmir-A History of Sunni-Shi’i Rivalry and Reconciliation.

After winning a second consecutive term in 2019, the National Democratic Alliance government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), revoked the special status granted under Article 370 of the Constitution to Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). While the Assembly elections in J&K, now a Union Territory, are long overdue, LS polls will be held in three phases starting May 7.

This time, Hamdani says, a candidate’s political stance on the abrogation of the region’s autonomy and the ability to articulate a notion of a collective Kashmiri identity in New Delhi will influence voting choices.

“One cannot see any community as a monolith. The same is true for the Shias of Kashmir. And they do not vote as a block with specific sectarian interests,” says Hamdani, citing group associations.

While Sunni-dominated Srinagar, currently represented by former Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, goes to polls on May 13, Anantnag-Rajaouri and Baramulla, the other two constituencies in Kashmir, vote on May 7 and 20, respectively.

Since the Shia community is a minority in the Valley, some feel the government and the administration have not been “appreciative of their aspirations”, Hamdani says, adding that historically, the Shia votes have been “either inconsequential or taken for granted”.

Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is contesting from Baramulla, which is closely watched due to shifts in electoral dynamics post-delimitation.

In addition to winnability, the candidate shuffle could be driven by calculations to defeat Sajjad Lone, chairman of the People’s Conference contesting from Baramulla, says Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at ORF and a former member of the National Security Council’s Advisory Board.

“By giving Srinagar to Aga Ruhullah, Omar is ensuring he will get Shia support in Baramulla. The delimitation was probably done to enhance the Shia clout in the constituency. The election could be complicated by the candidature of Sheikh Abdul Rashid (known as Engineer Rashid), who is currently in Tihar jail,” he says.

There are no official figures on the number of Shias residing in the Valley. However, some estimates suggest that about 10 per cent of the population or 1.5 million Shias live in Kashmir mostly in closely-knit colonies.

Prevailing societal prejudice and differences in religious interpretations have resulted in sectarian violence in Kashmir. Forty years ago, the victory of Shia cleric Moulvi Ifthikar Ansari against a NC candidate during the 1983 Assembly elections (outside the Srinagar constituency) sparked sectarian riots. In his book, Hamdani calls it “the first major Shia-Sunni riot of the twentieth century”.

After the start of the insurgent movement in the Valley, the majoritarian mindset has often cast aspersions “on the loyalty of the Shia to the cause”.

A Shia was never given ministerial position under Sheikh Abdullah, but that changed under Farooq in 1987 when Moulvi Iftikhar Ansari became a Cabinet minister, writes Hamdani in his book.

Closely enmeshed with the Islamic history of Kashmir itself, the Shias had been at the centre of political power under the dynasty of the Chaks.

Post the abrogation of the Article 370, the BJP has tried to extend its outreach within the community. The J&K administration under Lt Gov Manoj Sinha overturned the ban on Asura processions during Muharram after 34 years. During the 2020 District Development Council elections, BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi had campaigned for the party candidate in Balahama, a Shia-dominated area. The BJP won its first seat ever in the Valley in the same election.

“If you are a party that does not have a stronghold in any region, either you have a message that galvanises people to your platform or you try to exacerbate existing splits within the community,” says Hamdani.

Until the 1980s, Hamdani says, some community youths were disassociated with the events that were unfolding in Kashmir. But since the abrogation was such a “watershed moment” in Kashmir’s history, it will be interesting to see if group interests trump this time or the collective interests of the Kashmiri people will be of paramount importance, he says.

Joshi partially agrees. The abrogation of the special status will not directly impact the election, but the politics of it will, he says. “Those politics are quite complicated and must also take into account the delimitation exercise.”

First Published: Apr 18 2024 | 1:28 AM IST