MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Yankees, Guardians sluggers break out, Mets bounce back with José Quintana

We’ve gotten to the point on the calendar where the number of days with multiple baseball games is dwindling. In fact, only two more are guaranteed with a maximum of three. This means die-hard baseball fans better be taking it all in.

The gamblers out there are no different. Get those wagers in while you can before the long, cold winter. As for me, I went 2-0 on Wednesday after a bit of a lukewarm spell, so let’s keep the good times rolling. 

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Schmidt was hurt for a while this year and pitched to a 3.65 ERA in his five regular-season starts after he returned. In his lone playoff start to this point, he lasted 4 2/3 innings against the Royals, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out four. He faced the Guardians back on April 13 and gave up two runs (one earned) on three hits in five innings. He struck out seven but walked five.

Boyd was grabbed by the Guardians off the scrap heap in late June. He had a 2.72 ERA in eight starts. In the playoffs so far, he hasn’t allowed a run. In his 6 2/3 innings, he’s given up five hits and three walks while having struck out 10. The only complaint anyone has had about him, really, was that his manager is pulling him too early. The Yankees scored three runs in 5 1/3 innings against him on Aug. 20. 

I want to zero in on something offensively, though. 

The plays: José Ramírez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105) and Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125)

Both of the three-hole hitters in this series had struggled mightily in the playoffs heading into Game 2. Their whole career resumes in the playoffs were lackluster, but it had gotten worse if we zeroed in on 2024. Both hit home runs in their last at-bats of Game 2  and had several other good swings.

I’m going with the notion that both perform as if their mind was immediately cleared once their homers cleared the outfield wall. 

Ramírez is a much better hitter at home and is 3 for 8 with a double and three RBI in his career against Schmidt. He’s also gotten some good looks off important Yankees pitchers, including a home run off the closer, Luke Weaver. 

Judge slugged .735 against lefties this season and hit a home run off Boyd on Aug. 20 this season. 

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. LHP José Quintana

Yamamoto missed a large chunk of the season due to a shoulder injury and returned in September. He made four starts with varying levels of success to close the regular season. He got crushed by the Padres in Game 1 of the NLDS, but then he threw five scoreless, two-hit innings in Game 5, picking up the win in the clincher. The Mets saw him on April 19 and got him for four runs (three earned) on seven hits in six innings. He struck out nine. 

Quintana closed the regular season with a 0.74 ERA in his last six starts. So far in the playoffs, he has thrown 11 innings with only six hits and one run allowed. And that one run was unearned. He’s struck out 11. Basically, he’s on a stretch of dominant pitching. The Dodgers faced him on May 28, scoring three runs on eight hits in six innings. 

The play: Mets +114

I love how dominant Quintana has been recently and it sure doesn’t seem like Yamamoto can go very deep into the game. The Dodgers’ bullpen can be great, of course, but I am also getting a gut feeling that the Mets are going to bounce back. Maybe it’s just how it went down in Games 1 and 2 being fresh in my mind, sure. Maybe it’s also because the Mets have bounced back over and over ever since the start of June and the thought of them moving to the brink of elimination is what makes me push back. 

Whatever it is, I like the plus money here and I was feeling like I would’ve taken the Mets in a pick-’em situation anyway.